Theory of Change
POLICY DECISION LAB · LABORATORY 03
Theory
of Change.
Explain why an intervention should work before judging whether it did. Build a causal pathway from resources and action to measurable delivery, behavioural change and lasting public impact.
THE RESULTS CHAIN
Delivery is not
the final result.
A theory of change explains how and why a set of actions is expected to generate change in a defined context, including the assumptions required at every causal step.
Inputs
Money, people, authority, information, technology and partnerships.
Activities
Services, regulation, construction, communication or coordination performed.
Outputs
Direct deliverables produced and controlled by the programme.
Outcomes
Changes in behaviour, capability, access, incentives or institutional practice.
Impact
Longer-term change in welfare, productivity, equity, resilience or sustainability.
WHAT MAKES THE CHAIN CAUSAL?
Expose every
hidden assumption.
Why change occurs
Specify how the intervention alters incentives, information, capability, constraints or opportunities.
Where change occurs
Identify institutional, economic and social conditions supporting or weakening the mechanism.
What else could change
Record external trends, concurrent policies and selection processes that could produce the outcome.
THEORY-OF-CHANGE BUILDER
Construct the chain.
Test every link.
Complete the causal pathway. ECONORIA generates a visual logic model and audits whether delivery, change, assumptions and measurement are sufficiently explicit.
Define the policy objective.
Not defined
Not defined
Not defined
Not defined
Not defined
CRITICAL CAUSAL ASSUMPTIONNot specified
THEORY-OF-CHANGE VERDICTThe causal pathway is not yet sufficiently specified for policy design.
QUALITY STANDARDS
A theory of change must be
testable and revisable.
Plausible
Mechanisms are consistent with theory, evidence and local context.
Specific
Each causal link identifies an actor, change, direction and time horizon.
Measurable
Indicators distinguish implementation outputs from outcomes and impact.
Falsifiable
The theory states what evidence would weaken or reject the expected pathway.
SCIENTIFIC CHECKPOINT
Which is an
outcome?
A skills programme delivered 1,000 training places and participants later increased their employment rate. Which statement is the outcome?
Outputs are delivered; outcomes describe change among people or systems.
