Risk, Uncertainty and Resilience
POLICY DECISION LAB · LABORATORY 11
Risk, Uncertainty
& Resilience.
Anticipate what may fail without pretending every future is measurable. Identify exposure, reduce vulnerability, prepare contingencies and establish triggers for adaptation.
KNOWLEDGE HAS LIMITS
Not all uncertainty
is the same.
Risk permits approximate probabilities. Uncertainty weakens probability knowledge. Deep uncertainty includes disagreement about models, values and possible futures.
Risk
Events and probabilities can be estimated.
Uncertainty
Outcomes are known, but likelihoods are weak.
Deep uncertainty
Actors disagree about futures, models or values.
FOUR RESPONSES
Prevent, prepare,
transfer or adapt.
Avoid
Remove the exposure or choose another design.
Mitigate
Reduce probability or consequence.
Transfer
Share financial or operational exposure.
Accept & prepare
Monitor triggers and hold contingency capacity.
POLICY RISK REGISTER
Score the threat.
Design the response.
Define one failure mode and its management architecture. ECONORIA calculates inherent and residual risk.
Not assigned
Not specified
Not specified
Not specified
The risk remains high and the management architecture is incomplete.
RESILIENCE PRINCIPLES
Robust where possible.
Adaptive where necessary.
Redundancy
Maintain alternatives for critical functions.
Modularity
Contain failure rather than spreading it.
Reversibility
Stage commitments and preserve exit routes.
Learning
Use triggers to adapt before failure compounds.
What distinguishes residual from inherent risk?
Controls reduce but rarely eliminate exposure.
Continue to Laboratory 12: Indicators and Monitoring Systems →
